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Forex Flash: EUR/USD likely to remain under pressure – Commerzbank

ForexAdmin — Fri, 18 May 2012 23:33:41 +0000

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Forex: USD-JPY Capped By Ichimoku Fast Line Eyes 200-Day Moving Average at 78.48

ForexAdmin — Fri, 18 May 2012 23:33:39 +0000

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Forex – Chart EUR/USD Update: Early drift higher stalls; now a small drift …

ForexAdmin — Fri, 18 May 2012 23:33:37 +0000

18:11 (GMT) 18 May 18:10 GMT – EUR/USD bounce was blocked in front of the 1.2749/59 zone,now…

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WORLD FOREX: Currency Markets Pull Back From The Precipice

ForexAdmin — Fri, 18 May 2012 23:33:35 +0000

— Euro, Aussie dollar steady after heavy losses against US dollar and yen

— Japan finance minister eyes volatile yen action, vows to act “appropriately”

— European money markets calm after Spanish bank downgrades

By William Kemble-Diaz

Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

LONDON -(Dow Jones)- Currency markets pulled back from the precipice in European hours Friday, having looked ready to
go over the top in early trade as the euro and Australian dollar sank against safer bets like the yen and dollar.

That came amid a global slump in shares after poor U.S. data added to the economic gloom and Moody’s Investors Service
downgraded 16 Spanish banks, piling the pressure on Spain after a day of bank-run denials and ratcheting up the euro-
zone crisis still further in the wake of Greece’s political deadlock.

The euro hit a four-month low of $1.2642 against the dollar, taking its losses for the week to 4.5%, but then
steadied.

It was a similar story against the yen, after the single currency fell to its lowest level in more than 14 weeks and
Japanese Finance Minister Jun Azumi hinted at possible market intervention to counter volatile trading conditions.

The Australian dollar also recovered after plumbing its lowest level against the buck in almost six months.

The calmer tone was reflected in peripheral euro-zone government bond markets, where yields tightened slightly albeit
from elevated yields, and in Europe’s wholesale lending markets where there were no obvious signs of renewed stress.

“Banks aren’t cutting back any further on unsecured lending because there have already cut back substantially and are
lending only to very specific names,” said Kevin Pearce, senior broker for currency deposits and derivatives at
interdealer broker ICAP.

Interest rate derivative markets mirrored that stability, with Euro Overnight Index Average, or EONIA, forward rates
consolidating at lower levels, having skirted record lows last week.

“The market is looking for further stimulus from the European Central Bank somewhere down the line more but what that
will be is unclear. It’s now a waiting game to see what happens next,” Pearce said.

However, the underlying mood was jumpy, with expectations of a Greek exit from the euro zone still building ahead of a
second round of elections, expected June 17, and the cost of insuring Spanish sovereign debt against default hitting
another record high.

In a note, Morgan Stanley said the growing disparity between different euro-zone government bonds, after yields hit
record lows this week in safe-haven countries like Germany, while hovering near levels deemed unsustainable in others,
could hurt the euro in the long run.

“The shrinking pool of available higher-rated assets suitable for central bank reserves suggests that the euro’s
weighting in reserves is likely to be questioned,” it said.

Emerging market currencies were broadly steady, with the dollar easing off a five-month high against the South Korean
won, with the Bank Of Korea earlier suspected of selling dollars to support the Korean currency.

No U.S. data is scheduled Friday.

At 1136 GMT, the euro was trading at $1.2698 against the dollar, compared with $1.2697 late Thursday in New York,
according to trading system EBS. The dollar was at Y79.374 against the yen, compared with Y79.260, while the euro was at
Y100.77, compared with Y100.66. The pound was trading at $1.5808 against the dollar, compared with $1.5792 late Thursday
in New York.

The ICE Dollar Index, which tracks the dollar against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, was trading at 81.463,
compared with 81.474 late Thursday in New York.

A summary of key levels for chart-watching technical strategists is below:

Forex spot:       EUR/USD    USD/JPY    GBP/USD    USD/CHF

Spot 1032 GMT     1.2697     79.35      1.5805     0.9460
3 Day Trend       Bearish    Bearish    Bearish    Bullish
Weekly Trend      Bearish    Bearish    Bearish    Bullish
200 day ma        1.3340     79.73      1.5885     0.9107
3rd Resistance    1.2759     80.25      1.5951     0.9561
2nd Resistance    1.2721     79.85      1.5875     0.9528
1st Resistance    1.2708     79.46      1.5842     0.9500
Pivot*            1.2705     79.60      1.5837     0.9454
1st Support       1.2642     79.13      1.5733     0.9454
2nd Support       1.2624     78.70      1.5695     0.9429
3rd Support       1.2604     78.25      1.5642     0.9415

Forex spot:       EUR/JPY

Spot 1032 GMT     100.74
3 Day Trend       Bearish
Weekly Trend      Bearish
200 day ma        106.35
3rd Resistance    102.00
2nd Resistance    101.12
1st Resistance    100.87
Pivot*            101.20
1st Support        99.85
2nd Support        99.25
3rd Support        99.09

– By William Kemble-Diaz, Dow Jones Newswires; 44-20-7842-9347; william.kemble-diaz@dowjones.com; @djfxtrader


  (END) Dow Jones Newswires
  05-18-120715ET
  Copyright (c) 2012 Dow Jones  Company, Inc.

WORLD FOREX:Dollar Snaps Winning Streak As Euro Stabilizes

ForexAdmin — Fri, 18 May 2012 23:33:32 +0000

By Matthew Walter

Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)–The dollar weakened against its main rivals for the first time since April as concern about Greece’s economic and political crisis subsided, sparking renewed demand for the euro.

The ICE Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of currencies, including the euro, snapped a three-week streak of gains – its longest since 1985 – falling 0.58% to 81.084, from 81.383 late Thursday.

The move closed out a week in which the euro tumbled 2.1% to a new four-month …

FOREX-Euro rallies from 4-month low versus dollar

ForexAdmin — Fri, 18 May 2012 23:33:30 +0000

Fri May 18, 2012 4:59pm EDT

Mary Kennedy services planned amid apparent rift

ForexAdmin — Fri, 18 May 2012 23:33:29 +0000

BEDFORD, N.Y. (AP) — The two sides of Mary Richardson Kennedy‘s grieving family faced off in court Friday, just hours before a planned wake for Robert F. Kennedy Jr.‘s estranged wife, as a relative described a long fight with psychiatric illness that ended in suicide.

Details of the legal dispute were sealed by a judge, but it came as the Kennedy and Richardson families were finalizing arrangements for separate memorial services for the 52-year-old architect and environmentalist, who committed suicide Wednesday by hanging herself. Mary and Robert Kennedy had been going through a lengthy, contested divorce.

Robert Kennedy declined to speak about the matter after emerging from a closed court session in White Plains on Friday afternoon, saying only, “It’s all done.” Lawyers for Mary Kennedy‘s siblings also declined to comment or didn’t return phone calls.

After the legal proceedings concluded, the medical examiner’s office in Westchester County received an order instructing them to release the body to a funeral home in Bedford, according to a county spokeswoman.

Mary had been close with the Kennedy family for decades, dating back to a childhood friendship with one of Robert’s sisters, Kerry Kennedy.

One of Mary’s brothers, Thomas Richardson, filed a legal motion in White Plains on Thursday listing Robert Kennedy as the defendant. The document wasn’t made public and was then subsequently sealed, along with all other papers related to the case, by Judge Joan Lefkowitz.

The court filing came on the same day that the Kennedys had announced their memorial plans for Mary, which included a wake at the couple’s home in Bedford on Friday evening, a funeral Saturday morning at a Roman Catholic Church, and burial later in the day near the family’s seaside compound in Hyannisport, Mass.

Meanwhile, Mary Kennedy’s siblings announced through their lawyer, Kerry Lawrence, that they were planning a memorial service in Manhattan, though they didn’t say when.

Lawrence declined to answer questions about the court filing Friday. The lawyer listed in court records as representing Thomas Richardson, Patricia Hennessey, had also served as Mary’s divorce lawyer. Hennessey did not return a phone message.

Mary Kennedy hanged herself at the family’s Bedford estate after struggling for years with depression and alcohol.

“She struggled so hard, for so long, with mental illness, which so many Americans suffer with,” Kerry Kennedy said in brief remarks to reporters outside the church where the funeral was planned. “She fought with dignity, and in the end, the demons won.”

Mary and Robert, the son of assassinated U.S. senator and Attorney General Robert Kennedy, had been in divorce proceedings since 2010. The couple had been living in separate homes and had four children together.

Records in the couple’s divorce case are sealed, but the public docket sheet showed that Robert Kennedy’s lawyers had sought a contempt order in the case last summer, indicating a dispute between the two sides.

American Express also sued Mary Kennedy in April, claiming she owed $32,624 in unpaid bills. Her lawyers didn’t respond to inquiries about that lawsuit.

___

Caruso reported from New York.

U.K. surveillance program could expose private lives

ForexAdmin — Fri, 18 May 2012 23:33:28 +0000

LONDON (AP) — British officials have given their word: “We won’t read your emails.”

But experts say the government‘s proposed new surveillance program will gather so much data that spooks won’t have to read your messages to guess what you’re up to.

The U.K. Home Office stresses it won’t be reading the content of every Britons’ communications, saying the data it seeks “is NOT the content of any communication.” It is, however, looking for information about who’s sending the message and to whom, where it’s sent from and other details, including a message’s length and its format.

The proposal, unveiled last week as part of the government‘s annual legislative program, is just a draft bill, so it could be modified or scrapped. But if passed in its current form, it would put a huge amount of personal data at the government’s disposal, which it could use to deduce a startling amount about Britons’ private lives — from sleep patterns to driving habits or even infidelity.

“We’re really entering a whole new phase of analysis based on the data that we can collect,” said Gerald Kane, an information systems expert at Boston College. “There is quite a lot you can learn.”

The ocean of information is hard to fathom. Britons generate 4 billion hours of voice calls and 130 billion text messages annually, according to industry figures. In 2008, the BBC put the annual number of U.K.-linked emails at around 1 trillion.

Then there are instant messaging services run by companies such as BlackBerry, Internet telephone services such as Skype, chat rooms, and in-game services like those used by World of Warcraft.

Communications service providers, who would log all that back-and-forth, believe the government’s program would force them to process petabytes (1 quadrillion bytes) of information every day. It’s a mind-boggling amount of data, on the scale of every book, movie and piece of music ever released.

So even without opening emails, how much can British spooks learn about who’s sending them?

THEY’LL SEE THE RED FLAGS

Did you know how fast you were going?

Your phone does.

If you sent a text from London before stepping behind the wheel, and a second one from a service station outside Manchester three hours later, authorities could infer that you broke the speed limit to cover the roughly 200 miles that separate the two.

Crunching location data and communications patterns gives a remarkably rich view of people’s lives — and their misadventures.

Ken Altshuler, of the American Academy of Matrimonial Lawyers, raves about the benefits smartphones and social media have brought to savvy divorce attorneys. Lawyers don’t need sophisticated data mining software to spot evidence of infidelity or hints of hidden wealth when they review phone records or text traffic, he said.

“One name, one phone number that’s not on our client’s radar, and our curiosity is piqued,” he said. The more the communication — a late-night text sent to a work colleague, an unexplained international phone call — is out of character, “the more of a red flag we see.”

THEY’LL KNOW WHEN YOU’RE SLEEPING

The ebb and flow of electronic communication —that call to your mother just before bed, that early-morning email to your boss saying you’ll be late — frames our waking lives.

“You can figure somebody’s sleep patterns, their weekly pattern of work,” said Tony Jebara, a Columbia University expert on artificial intelligence. In 2006, he helped found New York-based Sense Networks, which crunches phone data to do just that.

Jebara said that calls made from the same location from 9 to 5 are a good indication of where a person works; the frequency of email traffic to or from a person’s work account is a good hint of his or her work ethic; dramatic changes to a person’s electronic routine might suggest a promotion — or a layoff.

“You can quickly figure out when somebody lost their job,” Jebara said, adding: “Credit card companies have been interested in that for a while.”

THEY’LL KNOW WHO’S THE BOSS

Drill down, and communication can reveal remarkably rich information. For example, does office worker A answer office worker B’s missives within minutes of the message being sent? Does B often leave colleagues’ emails unanswered for hours on end? If so, B probably stands for “boss.”

That’s an example of what Jebara’s Columbia colleagues call “automated social hierarchy detection,” a technique that can infer who gives the orders, who’s respected and who’s ignored based purely on whose emails get answered and how quickly. In 2007, they analyzed traffic from the Enron Corporation’s email archive to correctly guess the seniority of several top-level managers.

Intelligence agencies may not need such tools to untangle corporate flowcharts, but identifying ringleaders becomes more important when tracking a suspected terrorist cell.

“If you piece together the chain of influence, then you can find the central authority,” he said. “You can figure that out without looking at the content.”

THEY’LL KNOW WHO YOU’RE TALKING TO

Seeing how networks of people communicate isn’t just about finding your boss. It’s about figuring out who your friends are.

Programs already exist to determine the density of communications — something that can identify close groups of friends or family without even knowing who’s who. If one user is identified as suspicious, then users closest to him or her might get a second look as well.

“Let’s say we find out somebody in the U.K. is a terrorist,” said Kane. “You know exactly who he talks to on almost every channel, so BOOM you know his 10 closest contacts. Knowing that information not only allows you to go to his house, but allows you to go to their houses as well.”

A SNOOPER’S CHARTER?

Detective work at the stroke of a key is clearly attractive to spy agencies. British officialdom has been pushing for a mass surveillance program for years. But civil libertarians are perturbed, branding the proposal a “snooper’s charter.”

Kane says the surveillance regime has to be seen in the context of social networks such as Facebook and LinkedIn, where hundreds of millions of people are constantly volunteering information about themselves, their friends, their family and their colleagues.

“There’s no sense in getting all Big Brother-ish,” he said. “The bottom line is that we’re all leaving digital trails, everywhere, all the time. The whole concept of privacy is shifting daily.”

Hundreds of protesters marching through Chicago

ForexAdmin — Fri, 18 May 2012 23:33:27 +0000

CHICAGO (AP) — Thousands of nurses and other protesters gathered Friday at a downtown Chicago plaza for a noisy but largely peaceful demonstration demanding a “Robin Hood” tax on banks’ financial transactions, before a smaller but more raucous crowd broke away and began marching through city streets.

The marchers chanted slogans and taunted police, who followed on bicycles and on foot. Police horses blocked some intersections as the breakaway groups wound through the city.

Friday’s demonstrations were the largest yet ahead of a two-day NATO summit that is expected to draw even larger protests.

Members of National Nurses United, the nation’s largest nurses union, were joined by members of the Occupy movement, unions and veterans. City officials have said the event could draw more than 5,000 because of a performance by former Rage Against the Machine guitarist Tom Morello, an activist who has played at many Occupy events. Early crowds did not appear to be that large.

The nurses and their supporters dressed in red shirts and wore green felt Robin Hood caps with red feathers. There were few problems at the rally, though police arrested at least one demonstrator as the gathering broke up.

About a dozen police officers, some wearing riot gear, surrounded the protester, who was dressed entirely in black and identified himself as a 19-year-old from Albuquerque, N.M. Police handcuffed him and walked him away from the rally on Daley Plaza.

Deb Holmes, a nurse at a hospital in Worcester, Mass., said she was advocating for the tax but also protesting proposals to cut back nurses’ pensions.

“We’ve worked 30 years for them and don’t want to get rid of them,” she said.

The rally — which originally was scheduled to coincide with the start of the G-8 economic summit before that summit was moved from Chicago to Camp David — drew a broad spectrum of causes, from anti-war activists to Occupy protesters and Cathy Christeller’s nonprofit Chicago Women’s AIDS project.

Christeller, the agency’s executive director, said there is common ground among all protesters, even against the backdrop of the NATO summit.

“The whole … idea we should slash the (social) safety net instituted here and in Europe — It’s a disaster,” she said. “It ignores the source of the economic downturn, and it’s making people suffer unnecessarily. This brings us together,”

Mary O’Sullivan and Chris Fogarty held the same signs that they carry every week. The retired couple have been protesting together for more than a decade, and Mary has carried the same sign for years, taping over “Honk to indict Bush” to read “Honk to indict banksters.”

She said NATO “leaves rubble in their wake.”

Ben Meyer, a Chicago lawyer who was observing the protest for the National Lawyers’ Guild, denounced what he called an excessive police presence at the rally, which included dozens of officers milling through the crowd and lining the perimeter, some of whom were videotaping the rally.

“It’s frustrating the state needs to come out and show this much force for a nurses’ rally,” he said. “They have everyone from the superintendent on down here. It’s just ridiculous.”

Chris Phillips, an Occupy activist from Buffalo, N.Y., said two police officers seized a wooden flag pole he was using to fly a flag reading “coexist” while standing on a bench on Daley Plaza. Officers told him the pole was considered a weapon.

“Did they read my flag? It’s clearly a peaceful protest,” he said. “I didn’t hurt anybody. Are you kidding me?” Phillips said. He planned to protest nonstop for the next 4 days.

Meanwhile, lawyers for NATO summit protesters said police on Friday morning released four of nine activists arrested Wednesday on accusations that they had or planned to make Molotov cocktails.

The lawyers said police, with their guns drawn, raided an apartment building where activists were staying and arrested nine people. The Chicago chapter of the National Lawyers Guild said officers broke down doors in the building in the South Side Bridgeport neighborhood and produced no warrants.

The Chicago Police Department refused to comment.

Many office buildings in the usually bustling Loop business district were closed after workers were warned to stay home because of heightened security, snarled transportation and the possibility of unruly protests.

Other small protests, including one targeting climate change, are also planned.

Shawmaf Khubba, a student at Montclair State University in New Jersey, took a 14-hour bus ride on Thursday with 40 others to join the Chicago protests. He said he wanted to raise awareness and tough questions about what he called NATO’s unwarranted military aggression around the world.

“NATO is a strong arm of the U.S. that gives an excuse to go everywhere around the world,” he said before Friday’s rally. “I’m here because I care about what happens to people around the world.”

Scattered protests over the past week have been relatively small, including a march Thursday through the “Magnificent Mile” shopping district that drew about 100 people.

Estimates of how many might show up Sunday for an anti-NATO march have varied widely, from a couple of thousand to more than 10,000.

Police and the Secret Service have taken no chances as heads of state from 50 countries begin arriving for the NATO summit, where leaders will discuss the war in Afghanistan and European missile defense.

Security is high on trains. Barricades and fences have been erected around landmark buildings, and streets are being closed.

___

Associated Press writers Nomaan Merchant, Jason Keyser, Shannon McFarland and Tammy Webber contributed to this report.

Obama, Hollande hunt for Afghanistan compromise

ForexAdmin — Fri, 18 May 2012 23:33:25 +0000

Hollande and Obama (Pablo Martinez Monsivais/AP)

Visiting French President François Hollande told President Barack Obama on Friday that France’s combat troops would leave Afghanistan by year’s end and pledged to find a way “for our allies to pursue their mission” in talks at a looming NATO summit. The two leaders also bonded over jokes about fast food, a move that recalled ugly Franco-American tensions ahead of the war in Iraq.

France will support Afghanistan “in another way, another form” Hollande told Obama as they met for the first time in the Oval Office. But “the date of the end of 2012 is, for (French) combat troops, the final date.”

Obama’s NATO-backed strategy for ending the deeply unpopular war calls for shifting the burden of security to Afghan forces next year (a step the NATO summit in Chicago this weekend is expected to detail) on the way to a full withdrawal of alliance combat troops by the end of 2014. At the same time, he recently signed an accord with Afghan President Hamid Karzai that may keep American military trainers and counterterrorism troops in the war-torn country to 2024. U.S. officials have expressed hope that France will consider a similar compromise, which could avert a possible rush to the exits by other war-weary allies.

“We’ll discuss this again at the summit in Chicago, and I think that we’ll be able to find a way to make it possible for our allies to pursue their mission and for France to keep the promise I made to the French people,” said Hollande, who campaigned on a pledge to pull France’s combat troops out by the end of the year.

“We agreed that even as we transition out of a combat phase in Afghanistan that it’s important that we sustain our commitment to helping Afghans build security and continue down the path of development,” said Obama.

Obama and his guest, the first Socialist French president in 17 years, seemed far closer on other issues: Both cited the need to stimulate the sputtering global economy. “Growth must be a priority, even as we get our public accounts in order,” said Hollande, whose calls for jobs initiatives is a break from predecessor Nicolas Sarkozy’s austerity agenda. Obama and the French president were to meet hours later at Camp David with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who has called for stricter fiscal discipline, at a summit of the Group of Eight industrialized nations.

“We’re looking forward to a fruitful discussion later this evening and tomorrow with the other G8 leaders about how we can manage a responsible approach to fiscal consolidation that is coupled with a strong growth agenda,” said Obama.

The French president also said he and his host had agreed on the need for Greece to remain in the eurozone—Europe’s common currency area—despite the country’s profound debt crisis and calls from some quarters for dropping it from the 17-nation economic union.

“We share the same belief, that Greece must remain in the eurozone and that all of us must make an effort to achieve that goal,” said Hollande. “And I wanted to send the Greek people this message: Your place is in the eurozone.”

Both leaders also showed a united front on the tense diplomatic crisis over Iran’s suspect nuclear program and international efforts to end Syria’s bloody crackdown on opposition to President Bashar al-Assad.

Obama’s talks with Hollande kicked off a frenetic four days of guns-and-butter diplomacy, starting with the G8 meeting at Camp David and continuing through the NATO summit in Chicago.

Both Afghanistan and the economy are central to Obama’s legacy—not to mention his hopes for re-election in November. And the back-to-back summits offer vital opportunities to get the United States and its closest allies in closer harmony.

White House officials have worriedly watched Europe’s debt crisis, concerned that a recession there could infect the already-weak American economy. And the president has made a successful handover of security responsibility from NATO-led forces to their Afghan counterparts by the end of 2014 one of his signature foreign policy goals.

“Our economies are interdependent. What happens in Europe has consequences on the United States. And what happened in the United States had consequences for Europe,” said Hollande. “The more coordinated our actions, the more effective we can be.”

(Hollande later doubled down on his Afghanistan policy in a press conference before the G8, telling reporters his withdrawal pledge was “not negotiable,” Agence France-Presse reported.

“The withdrawal of combat forces is France’s decision and this decision will be implemented,” he said. But he noted that France would “make its decisions in harmony with its allies, including our American partners.”

After 2012, any remaining French forces “will simply be tasked with logistics to bring home our equipment” and will take part in efforts to train the Afghan police and army.)

As the meeting began, Obama referred to Hollande’s youthful adventures in the United States, which he traveled to in 1974 on a grant from a business school. The future president of a country famed for its food studied McDonald’s and Kentucky Fried Chicken, both unknown at the time in France. “I could have made a fortune in cheeseburgers, but I finally chose politics,” he recently told The New York Times.

After offering Hollande a “hearty congratulations” on his election victory, Obama noted that his guest “actually spent some time in the United States in his youth, studying American fast food—and although he decided to go into politics, we’ll be interested in his opinions of cheeseburgers in Chicago.”

“I want to thank President Obama for his vast knowledge of my life before I became a politician. And I want to say nothing that might suggest that cheeseburgers might have any flaws,” replied Hollande.

“I just want to remember that cheeseburgers go very well with french fries,” joked Obama. “No declaration about french fries,” Hollande said, in English.

That light banter recalled deep tensions between Paris and Washington in the run-up to the March 2003 invasion of Iraq, a war France fiercely opposed. U.S. lawmakers at one time voted to change the name of french fries to “freedom fries” in their cafeteria, while Air Force One served “freedom toast.” Neither food is known as “French” in France.

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